Can I make a minimum of 5 times my investment?
Can I make a minimum of 5 times my investment? This is the second question you should ask yourself in the process of establishing whether you are ready to buy/acquire silver. If you missed the first question, you will find it here.
In order to establish whether you can make a minimum of 5 times your investment in silver, physical silver that is, you need to consider the current silver price and future silver price estimates (in reference to non-mainstream future silver price estimates). The reason being is because the mainstream is controlled and run, not only by complete and utter idiots, but intellectual cowards and outright liars. If you listen to them, chances are good that you and your family will end up in serious financial trouble for one. E.g. the majority of financial advisors are more worried about making enough commission than anything else. Does this mean that we are against a person if he/she earns commission for al living? Hell no! We are however against a person who lies and who gives shitty advice just for the sake of earning commission (or any other incentive for that matter!). In all fairness to them, many of them don’t have the mandate to advise their clients to invest in silver. So even if they wanted to tell you to invest in silver, they are not allowed to do so. Then again, one can argue that they should find themselves other jobs or grow a pair of balls if that’s the case.
Let’s be honest with ourselves, the mainstream is not geared towards your best interests. Yes, they might at some stage advocate that you start investing in silver, mainly to get you into paper silver, but chances are that it will be way too late to see any spectacular returns (or any returns for that matter!). You don’t have to believe us, but we would hate to see you and your families suffer as a result of shameless scoundrels.
Ok, back to the current silver price and future price estimates…
Let’s use an example of how one can estimate whether one can expect to make a minimum of 5 times one’s investment in silver or not, despite silver market manipulation and other factors. Silver is currently trading at $30 per troy ounce (at the time this was written).
Now let’s consider two or more estimates (in no specific order) for silver prices in the future:
- Estimate of silver at $60-$90 per troy ounce: Adam Hamilton of Zeal Research writes: “On January 21st, 1980 at its all-time high, $48 silver translates into $135 in today’s dollars. In other words, it would take $135 today to equal the purchasing power of $48 three decades ago.” Furthermore: “…silver still has plenty of room to run higher. It could double or even triple from here…” (Real Silver Highs 3, Adam Hamilton, 24hGOLD, 7 January 2011).
- Estimate of silver at $50 per troy ounce: Chris Mack of Tradeplacer writes: “Precious metals will surprise on the downside in the first half and surprise on the upside in the second half. Gold will top $1650 and silver will top $50. This will confirm the third phase of the bull market in precious metals” (9 Market predictions for 2011, Chris Mack, 24hGOLD, 11 January 2011).
- Estimate of silver at “price is no object”: Bix Weir of Road to Roota writes: “Have you ever heard the term “PRICE IS NO OBJECT”? SOON YOU WILL HEAR THAT ABOUT A MERE OUNCE OF SILVER!” (SILVER: What Happens When…, Bix Weir, 24hGOLD, 12 January 2011).
- Estimate of silver at $38-$87 per troy ounce: “And that brings me back to my price prediction. If we use the current 50:1 ratio – and my expectation that gold will be trading at $1,900 an ounce by the end of 2011 – I believe we’re looking at a target price for silver of $38 an ounce.” Furthermore: “Historically, that ratio is 16 to 1. On this basis alone – with gold sitting at nearly $1,389 an ounce at midday yesterday – silver should be at $86.75 [rounded up $87]“(Silver Price Forecast $86.75 in 2011, Precious Metals Investment Strategies, The Market Oracle, 2 December 2010).
- Estimate of silver at $40-$400 per troy ounce: “Predictions of higher silver prices in 2011 and continuing into 2015 came overnight. Standard Bank Plc said that they see silver at over $40/oz due to new applications and increased industrial demand.” Furthermore: “James Turk of Gold Money said that he believed silver would reach over $400/oz in 2015. Turk believes that this price will be reached due to massive investment demand in silver due to a possible crash in the dollar and the emergence of inflation and potentially hyperinflation. Turk also believes that the massive concentrated short positions on the COMEX held by JP Morgan as alleged by GATA and Ted Butler will propel silver prices higher in a huge short squeeze” (Silver Price Forecast Rise to $40/oz in 2011 and $400/oz by 2015, GoldCore, The Market Oracle, 15 December 2010).
- Estimate of silver at $49-$65 per troy ounce: “In fact our silverprices forecast for 2010 and 2011 is such that silver will exceed its non-inflation adjusted high of $48.70 [or rounded up $49] per ounce and its price can reach $55 to $65 range in the coming years” (Silver price predictions – silver prices forecast 2010, 2011, Financial News Headlines, 9 November 2009).
- Estimate of silver at $53-$200 per troy ounce: The National Inflation Association (NIA) writes: “We expect to see the Dow/Gold ratio decline to 6.5 and the Gold/Silver ratio decline to 38 in 2011.” Furthermore: “Later this decade, we expect to see the Dow/Gold ratio bottom at 1 and the Gold/Silver ratio decline to below 16 and possibly as low as 10.”Furthermore: “We believe the price of gold could surge to as high as $2,000 per ounce in 2011” (NIA’s Top 10 Predictions for 2011, National Inflation Association, 4 January 2011). Given the fact that the NIA expects gold to hit $2000 per ounce this year and expects a decline in the Gold / Silver Ratio (GSR) to 38 later this year, it places silver at a price estimate of $53 per ounce (rounded up) this year.In addtion: They expect to see the Gold / Silver Ratio (GSR) decline to as low as 10 later this decade. Now assuming that gold reaches $2000 per fine ounce and remains at that level for this decade, which is highly unlikely, we can expect to see a silver price of more or less $200 per fine ounce within this decade. This is a very conservative estimate.
Now given all of the mentioned estimates, the following should be clear:
- All estimates account for an increase in the silver price: It’s clear that all estimates account for an increase in the silver price, and although at different price levels, all account for silver price levels higher than the current silver price of $30 per ounce (at the time this was written).
- Most of the estimates only account for the short-term: Most of the estimates only account for the short-term, which is 1-2 years or so. The primary reason for this is because it’s difficult at best to give estimates of future silver price levels, especially considering rampant silver market manipulation. Silver Bullion however recommends a long-term view of 5-15 years; this is despite the fact that we don’t have any idea where silver prices are going to be in terms of the U.S. Dollar (USD) or any other currency for that matter. The primary reasons for this are, firstly, we expect the USD to collapse within this decade or lose most of its value (although we cannot pin point an exact date or year), and secondly, we have no idea when the naked shorts will be pushed out of the market (although we expect it to be sooner rather than later). The point we want to make is this: All estimates given here account for increases in the silver price over the short-term. This is despite rampant silver market manipulation and other factors, which makes any silver price estimate/forecast/prediction difficult at best. This is a sure sign of confidence in the prospects for silver (from an investment point of view). Silver Bullion can simply see no reason why this will not overflow into a long-term trend, especially considering ever increasing uneasiness about the U.S. Dollar. It boils down to this: If they are this positive about silver while the U.D. Dollar is still of relevance and silver market manipulation is still at the order of the day, can one really be anything but positive about silver’s long-term prospects?
- Average silver price range as per estimates: Now let’s calculate the average silver price range as per the estimates given. First, let’s look at the low ends: $60 + $50 + $38 + $40 + $49 + $53 = $290 ÷ 6 = $48 per ounce (rounded down), and then at the high ends: $90 + $87 + $400 + $65 + $200 = $842 ÷ 5 = $168 per ounce (rounded down}. This gives us an average silver price range estimate of $48-$168 per troy ounce of silver.
As per the example given, is an average silver price range estimate of $48-$168 per troy ounce of silver enough to convince you to buy or acquire silver at $30 per ounce (excluding premiums payable to sellers)?
Now let’s be clear on one thing, it’s recommended to buy silver if you can make a minimum of 5 times your investment, but hey, since accurate silver price estimates are nearly impossible to make due to the factors mentioned (the U.S. Dollar and silver market manipulation), the answer to this question should not be the all-out determining factor whether you are going to acquire/ buy silver or not at current silver price levels. In fact, let’s rephrase the question: “Can I afford not to make a minimum of 5 times my investment?” It’s all up to you. Silver Bullion is for one of the opinion that silver prices are going to reach highs in the coming years that will over shadow virtually all silver price estimates, especially when the U.S. Dollar crashes and silver market manipulation comes to an end (or at the least the naked shorts go bankrupt!).
Now back to the original question: “Can I make a minimum of 5 times my investment?” or let’s rather go back to the rephrased question: “Can I afford not to make a minimum of 5 times my investment?” If you can answer “yes” to this, then you’re ready to move unto the next question in the process of establishing whether you are ready to buy/acquire silver or not. If “no,” then we recommend you do additional reading and consider for one the “paper gimmick” and silver market manipulation.
The next question: “Can I hold for the long-term?”