Examining The Typically Accepted Narrative

One of the key motifs that we’ve been repeating is that 2017 is going to be a hugely uncertain year. To that end, today we begin exactly what may be a hugely unforeseeable week. Buckle up.So, allowed’s see. What are several of the main tenets of the heavily-promoted “Typically Accepted Story”?

  1. Major US deficit spending will promote financial growth
  2. This economic development will permit The Fed to trek the Fed Funds rate 3-4 times
  3. Prices on the long end will certainly rise, as well, as “the bond bubble bursts”
  4. Every one of this development and greater rates will certainly trigger a substantial rally in the buck
  5. And also the United States securities market will charge toward 25,000 on the Dow.Let’s sign in

on these as we’ve currently reached the second half of January.

“Major United States budget deficit will promote economic growth. This economic growth will certainly permit The Fed to hike the Fed Finances rate 3-4 times.”— Well, we’ll see concerning this. There have not been any kind of particular proposals placed forth yet by Trump and several of the economic as well as self-confidence numbers are currently starting to surrender. Here’s today’s economic datapoint for your consideration: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-01-17/trumphoria-fades-empire-fed-manufacturing-survey-signals-more-stagflation!.?.!  And, regarding The Fed, allowed’s not fail to remember these two graphes:

“Fees on the lengthy end will increase, also, as “the bond bubble bursts”. Well, this isn’t really functioning out so well for the Narrative Pushers. As we’ve been observing, lengthy rates are removaling lower as bonds are purchased, not marketed, as well as the supposed “bond bubble” is to life and also well. As you could see below, because the first of the year, the rate of the 30-year Lengthy Bond has actually dropped from 3.11% to 2.93% and currently endangers a full reversal back to where it was prior to the United States election. Yes, we will remain to see this very closely in the weeks ahead.

” Every one of this growth and also greater prices will certainly trigger a huge rally in the dollar.” And right here is where The Narrative Pushers are truly stopping working. The conventional wisdom holds that the POSX is going to 110+ as the euro and yen both discolor under the weight of their own concerns. Well, not so rapid my buddy. As you can see below, The Pig has actually currently dropped rather considerably in January and, if it falls back under 100, the Pig bulls are actually mosting likely to need to begin doubting themselves.

” As well as the US securities market will certainly charge toward 25,000 on the Dow. “Hmmm. Not so much. Possibly Bob Pissonme et cetera of the CNBS supporters should focus on reaching 20,000 prior to focusing upon 25,000? As you can see below, the “stock exchange” has been stuck currently for over a month.

We see The Usually Accepted Narrative falling short as it refers to Comex Digital Silver and gold, too. The amount of projections did you read in December that called for below-$1000 gold? The amount of meant experts and also wave-counters were predicting $12 or $8 silver? Instead, that ain’t exercising so well. As well as why? Due to the fact that the analysts and service technicians all fail to comprehend that there is no “market” for “gold”. Instead, we have HFT driving funds into and also from Comex Digital Gold exposure, mostly following modifications to the USDJPY. Who cares of we’re in subcycle F of significant downwave 3? None of that mumbo-jumbo makes a rat’s evaluate little bit of distinction if the USDJPY is without a doubt goinged back towards 100.

So be of cheer however anticipate a hugely unforeseeable 2017. As we have actually seen thus far, the predicted market steps of The Normally Accepted Narrative for 2017 are much from being a fait accompli.TF www.tfmetalsreport.com/subscribe

( Why?) Published at Tue, 17 Jan 2017 17:02:51 +0000

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